The 5 best NHL goalie contracts: Who's providing the most value in the crease? (2024)

During the last week of July, we spent some time evaluating contracts across the NHL. The Athletic’s analytics guru Dom Luszczyszyn rated every deal in the league, ranked teams by overall contract efficiency and identified the very best and worst deals using number models.

It’s a comprehensive breakdown, but doesn’t include goaltenders. Goaltending is the most important position on the ice and has the strongest correlation to winning, but is also the most difficult to project based on past metrics. Traditional goalie stats are heavily influenced by their environment, which sometimes makes judgment of individual play challenging.

The volatility of the position has dissuaded some general managers from spending exorbitant amounts on a goalie, content to build a strong team around a cheaper option. There’s no doubt signing goalies to a long-term deal comes with some risk, but there are still plenty of great deals out there.

Here are the five best contracts at the position, ranked by confidence that the goalie will outperform his cap hit for the duration of the deal. The remaining term length of the deal was taken into account. If a goalie has only one year left and is dramatically outperforming the contract, the discount will be short-lived.

1. Jake Oettinger

Contract: $12 million x three years ($4 million AAV)

This contract looked great for the Dallas Stars the day it was signed last September, and has only gotten better in the 11 months since. In his first three NHL seasons, Oettinger’s ascension has been consistent. He has taken on a bigger workload each year and continually improved, proving last season he’s an elite, workhorse netminder.

In 2021-22, Oettinger grabbed the starting role in Dallas but was still part of a rotation with Braden Holtby, starting 46 games. This past season he started 61 times, finished with the fourth-most minutes of ice time in the NHL, and was brilliant throughout. The 24-year-old still has two years left on his contract with a cap hit of only $4 million, which makes him the 23rd highest-paid goalie in the league. That figure will only look better as new contracts are signed and Oettinger continues to improve.

He is the complete package in net, with the size, athleticism and play-reading ability to be in the conversation for the Vezina Trophy every year for the foreseeable future, and a below-the-league-average cap hit for a starting goalie. Even better for the Stars, Oettinger will still have restricted free-agent status when the deal expires in the summer of 2025.

2. Juuse Saros

Contract: $20 million x four years ($5 million AAV)

The biggest factor that makes predicting future goalie performance challenging is the significant influence the overall team can have on a goalie’s metrics. Some goalies look statistically much better than they are thanks to a sensational defense in front of them, and the opposite is also true. Last season Saros was so good his environment didn’t matter.

Nashville was among the worst teams in the league in terms of scoring chances and expected goals allowed, but Saros stood on his head and nearly carried the Predators to the postseason anyway. Despite playing behind a sub-par defense, Saros posted a sensational stat line that included the league lead in goals saved above expected (46.7 according to MoneyPuck) and wins above replacement (8.9 according to Evolving Hockey).

His excellent play behind a less-than-stellar team only strengthens the confidence that he’ll outplay his reasonable cap hit of only $5 million over the next two seasons. Saros signed the four-year deal in August 2021 and has finished top four in Vezina voting each year since. At only 28, the Finn has shown no signs of slowing down. With precise edgework and elite athleticism, Saros is proving a sub-6-foot goalie can not only make it in today’s NHL but can thrive with the right skills.

3. Linus Ullmark

Contract: $20 million x four years ($5 million AAV)

Ullmark’s and Saros’ contracts are identical in term and money and were both signed within a span of just over two weeks. Like Saros, Ullmark has outplayed his $5 million cap hit considerably in the first two years of the deal with the Bruins, including this season where he led the league in most statistics and ran away with the Vezina Trophy voting.

Ullmark’s trophy case may be more impressive than Saros’ at the moment, but this deal ranks just below it for two reason. The first is Saros’ track record as an elite goalie is a bit longer than Ullmark’s, and the second is Saros did it behind a bad defense while Ullmark’s standout season came behind the best regular-season team in league history.

That’s not to say Ullmark wasn’t superb this season; even when accounting for the volume and quality of the chances he faced, Ullmark’s statistics were impeccable. But with Boston losing some key pieces, he will likely be relied on much more for the next two years of this deal. He’s proven himself even behind worse teams, like in 2020-21 when he posted a .917 save percentage and positive goals saved above average behind a last-place Sabres team.

There may be a bit more uncertainty with Ullmark, but with a cap hit outside of the top 20 for the position, he’s very likely to outplay his contract, making it one of the best in the league.

4. Filip Gustavsson

Contract: $11.25 million x three years ($3.75 million AAV)

What a season 2022-23 was for Gustavsson. The 25-year-old finished seventh in the NHL with 24.2 GSAx right behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, and second in save percentage (.931) behind only Ullmark.

Gustavsson’s breakout year in Minnesota wasn’t just impressive by the numbers. The Swede passed the eye test as well, controlling games from the crease. He plays angles incredibly well, makes himself look bigger in the net than he actually is and makes things look easy when he’s composed and on his game. He agreed to a three-year extension with the Wild in July just days before a scheduled arbitration hearing, and if Gustavsson can maintain even close to the level of play he showed last season, he’ll be an absolute steal at only $3.75 million.

Minnesota is in fantastic shape in net, on the ice and in the cap books. Not only is Gustavsson potentially one of the best values in the league, but with a $3.75 million cap hit, Marc-Andre Fleury is an excellent veteran presence who can confidently step into big games. Add in 20-year-old Jesper Wallstedt, who is one of the best goalie prospects in the league and still on his entry-level contract, and the Wild are set.

5. Stuart Skinner

Contract: $7.8 million x three years ($2.6 million AAV)

Skinner came to the Oilers’ rescue last season, and general manager Ken Holland wasted no time extending him. Edmonton signed the rookie to a three-year deal in December after only 18 appearances. It ended up being a shrewd move, as Skinner went on to play in the All-Star Game and finished second in voting for the Calder Trophy.

Skinner’s new deal begins this season, and he’ll carry a cap hit of only $2.6 million for each of the next three years. That makes him the 41st highest-paid goalie in the NHL, which is obviously great value based on his play last season. Skinner was excellent for a high-octane Oilers team that isn’t the easiest to play behind. While Edmonton’s defensive metrics are all solid (not great, but certainly not bad), their up-and-down style of hockey leads to rush chances against, and Skinner handled them well.

Skinner’s track record is obviously limited, which weakens the confidence that he’ll maintain a high level of play over the course of the deal. Even still, his cap hit is minimal enough to make this a great deal for Edmonton. It takes some of the sting out of what looks like one of the worst goalie contracts in the league: Jack Campbell.

Honorable mentions: Logan Thompson and Joseph Woll

Thompson and Woll deserve some attention considering both carry a cap hit of less than the NHL league minimum over the next two seasons and have proven they can provide strong play in net. Don’t worry, their actual salaries are at the minimum $775,000, but because they each started their three-year deals at only $750,000, their average annual values are only $766,667.

Thompson led the Golden Knights with 36 starts last season and represented the eventual Cup champs in the All-Star Game with a solid .915 save percentage. He’ll play in a rotation with Adin Hill this season, and his ultra-low cap hit is incredibly valuable to a Vegas team looking for every dollar.

Woll is in a similar situation but with less NHL experience. He went 6-1-0 last year for the Maple Leafs with an impressive .932 save percentage and 5.7 GSAx. He could be in line to back up Ilya Samsonov, who carries a reasonable $3.55 million cap hit. With less than $4.4 million committed to the pair, Samsonov and Woll project to provide great value to a team with plenty of high-priced players in the lineup.

— Data via CapFriendly, MoneyPuck and Evolving Hockey

(Top photo of Jake Oettinger: Chris Unger / Getty Images)

Jesse Granger is a staff writer for The Athletic NHL based in Las Vegas. He has covered the Golden Knights since its inception and was previously an award-winning reporter for the Las Vegas Sun. Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseGranger_